Where Now?

by Rab Bruce’s Spider

 

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Over the next few days, I’m sure we’ll see every political party putting its own spin on the results of the election. As expected by most people, the SNP fell well short of a majority of seats, but the Greens did particularly well, perhaps because more Yessers appreciated that voting SNP 1 & 2 was almost certainly going to result in their List vote being wasted.

 

There are a couple of positive things we can take from the outcome. First, the SNP won more seats than all the BBC-backed parties combined, and when you add in the Green seats, there is a very strong majority in favour of Scotland becoming a normal, self-governing country.

 

I did try to listen to the election coverage provided by BBC Scotland but it really was tough to sit through. What was noticeable was that they kept banging on about the SNP vote share having fallen. The BBC were also at pains to point out that in most of the constituency results, the combined pro-Union vote was greater than the SNP vote share. While factually correct, I had to laugh at their sudden disapproval of the First Past The Post electoral system which the BBC usually applauds. And, of course, the Additional Member System helped outweigh the unfairness of the FPTP Constituency results by effectively ignoring any votes for the SNP on the Party List.

 

The big question now is what happens next? The SNP will undoubtedly form the Government, with John Swinney as First Minister. But will he persevere as a minority Government, or will he go into coalition with the Greens? I suspect he’ll not want to tie himself into a formal coalition, but you never know. This was a great result for the Greens, and even die-hard SNP officials must recognise that much of that support came from Yessers who used their List vote to good effect. And let’s not forget that, in this time of increasing fuel prices which impact on everyday living, many people are in favour of Green environmental policies. Yes, I know they have some other policies which many people find problematic, but in the current constitutional impasse, having a pro-independence party in Parliament is essential.

 

Naturally, the BBC-backed Parties will push the point that the SNP did not get a majority of seats, so there is no reason for anyone to consider a second IndyRef. Personally, I think John Swinney was foolish to put this as his target since the likelihood of winning a majority is so small. But will the pro-Indy majority be enough? Will we ever learn what Mr Swinney’s secret plan is? The SNP have won a historic fifth term, but that is largely because, while many people do support most of their social policies, they get our votes because they are the only viable political route to independence. How much longer will they sit on their hands without pushing Scotland towards becoming a normal, self-governing country? Time is running out because we have seen from the English local elections that Nigel Farage is the prime candidate to become the UK’s next Prime Minister. We cannot afford to wait until that happens, so I want to hear what John Swinney plans to do. It will need to be something definitive and bold, and that is what worries me because “bold” is not a word I usually associate with Mr Swinney.

 

As for Reform, their rise is, I think, down to a few factors. They undoubtedly benefit from a transfer of allegiance from the Tories, they have the full backing of the BBC and most of the print media, and they are cashing in on voter discontent with the decade of Austerity which has left so many people struggling financially. Of course, they have no real policies to address the problems, and the policies they do have will largely harm the very people who have been gulled into voting for them. The fact that far right views and fascism have been normalised is another factor in their favour.  The one potentially redeeming thing is that they will now be on public display in Parliament, and I hope that their cruelty and incompetence will become more evident to the wider public.

 

We can no doubt expect a media blitz of anti-SNP stories, so the SNP really need to come out fighting now. I just hope they don’t disappoint us again.