A Plan For What?

by Rab Bruce’s Spider

 

Mastodon: @RabBrucesSpider1@Mastodon.Scot

BlueSky: @RabBrucesSpider.Bsky.Social

 

 

If you’re not dismayed by John Swinney’s latest plan for turning Scotland into a normal, self-governing country, you maybe missed the detail. Or perhaps John Swinney is relying on the fact that most people don’t fully understand how the Holyrood voting system works, and he’s hoping to gain another 5 years as First Minister without actually having to do anything about gaining independence.

 

Swinney has said that a majority of SNP MSPs at the Holyrood elections next year will be the latest mandate for independence because the Westminster Government could, apparently, not resist the clear will of the Scottish people. Let’s put aside the fact that Westminster is famous for ignoring the will of the Scottish people on a whole range of topics, let alone independence, and focus on the practicalities of gaining a majority of SNP MSPs.

 

First, note that there is no mention of a pro-independence majority which, in reality, means that the SNP and Greens would have a majority when their seats are combined. This has long been how the Yes movement has viewed things. This is because the Holyrood electoral system is designed to prevent any single party gaining a majority. Alex Salmond’s SNP did it once, but that was a unique result, and it must be said that the SNP were riding high in popularity back then, not something that can be said of the current iteration of SNP Government.

 

Of course, it is technically possible to win a majority by electing at least 65 Constituency MSPs. After all, the SNP won all but 3 Westminster seats back in 2015, but it has never been done in a Holyrood election and there are some constituencies where an SNP victory is extremely unlikely. In practice, the SNP are likely to fall a few short of the magic 65 number, just as they have done in past Holyrood elections. That means they must rely on having List MSPs elected, but that is where the problem lies. Because the more Constituency MSPs you have, the fewer List MSPs you will get because the system is heavily weighted against any Party which gains a large number of Constituency seats. This is why the usual mantra of “SNP 1 and 2” is highly detrimental to the cause of independence. If your constituency elects an SNP MSP, you almost certainly won’t get a List MSP as well because their vote share is reduced to compensate for the fact that they’ve already won a seat. To gain a pro-independence majority, the best option (whatever you think of the merits of either party) is to vote SNP on the Constituency ballot and Green on the List. Some may plump for Alba on the List, but unless they seriously get their act together, that’s going to be a wasted vote.

 

But John Swinney wants us to believe that, contrary to how arithmetic works, voting SNP 1 and 2 will somehow overcome this problem. I feel fairly confident in predicting that it won’t.

 

So the only way it can be done is if the SNP win at least 65 of the available 73 Constituency seats. That’s never been done and, quite frankly, unless the SNP come up with some really eye-catching policies, it isn’t going to happen this time around either. Merely being competent in Government is not enough, and there are plenty around who will tell you that the SNP has barely been competent in recent years. This may have as much to do with perception as reality, as Scotland still fares better than England on most metrics, although that is, in fairness, a pretty low bar these days.

 

I have said before that if any Yes supporter thinks that John Swinney is the answer, they are asking the wrong question. However able and clever he might be, he is not the charismatic, innovative politician the Yes movement needs right now, and his latest “plan” confirms that. Even if, by some miracle, the SNP do achieve a majority of seats, the chances of Westminster granting another referendum are virtually non-existent, and John Swinney must know that.

 

Finally, if John Swinney was really determined to lead Scotland on the path to becoming a normal country, why has he not stipulated that a pro-independence majority of MSPs would be sufficient? Combining SNP and Green seats is far more likely to produce a pro-Yes majority, so why rule it out? There’s only one conclusion I can think of, and it suggests John Swinney is far more concerned with retaining power than with actually gaining independence. I hope I’m wrong, but I am struggling to think of any other reason why he would come up with such a restrictive plan.